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BBC //

Donald Trump repeatedly said during the election campaign that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war ‘in one day’. Trump has already expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Trump is returning to the White House with a large margin of victory. It is very difficult to predict in advance what decisions Trump may make on foreign policy and strategy. Therefore, it is not possible to say clearly whether he will remain steadfast in the foreign policy of his previous term or make changes.

Trump is ‘close’ to Russian President Vladimir Putin. His Democratic rival Kamala Harris has made this accusation against Trump several times in this election campaign. Kamala said, ‘He (Trump) wants Ukraine to surrender. This will put the whole of Europe in danger.’

Trump himself did not explain how he would end the Ukraine war ‘in one day’; Instead, he suggested seeking a deal to end the war. He declined to elaborate.

However, in May, two of Trump’s former national security chiefs wrote a research paper in which they said the United States should continue to supply weapons to Ukraine, but only if Kiev begins peace talks with Russia.

Trump’s former security chiefs also believe that the West could delay Ukraine’s long-awaited entry into NATO to appease Russia. They suggested that Ukraine should not be allowed to do so without the hope of freeing its entire territory from Russian occupation. But that discussion should be based on the current battlefield.

It is not clear how much Trump himself believes in what these two former security chiefs have said. However, it does provide some guidance on the type of advice he takes.

Regarding the Ukraine war, Trump has said that his priority is to end the war (in Ukraine) so that US resources are not wasted. Because, for him, ‘America first’.

Trump’s ‘America First’ policy extends to the future of NATO. The NATO military alliance was formed after World War II with the slogan ‘all for one and one for all’.

NATO currently has 32 members. Trump has been skeptical about the effectiveness of the NATO alliance from the beginning. Trump has accused Europe of taking advantage of the US’s promise of security without paying for it.

If Trump does indeed withdraw the United States from NATO, it will be the most significant change in the trans-Atlantic defense relationship in nearly a century. It will certainly cause great controversy.

Many of Trump’s allies, however, believe that Trump’s tough stance on NATO is actually a negotiating tactic. Trump wants each NATO member to pay its own share of defense spending.

Whatever Trump’s allies say, the reality is that Trump’s victory will be a cause for serious concern for NATO leadership.