International Desk //

Winds of change in the Middle East without Israel. And Saudi Arabia and Iran are leading it. Saudi Arabia is gradually warming its relations with its arch-enemy, Iran. In this, the country has indicated that Riyadh will not establish diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv without the establishment of a Palestinian state. Which is a significant change in Saudi Arabia’s position.

Images of children buried alive under the rubble of Gaza, mothers wailing in front of their dead children, and images of Israeli barriers to food for starving Palestinians—all made it impossible for Saudi Arabia’s leadership to ignore the issue of a Palestinian state.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi businessman and close to the royal family and a member of the NEOM project’s advisory board, said that what Gaza has done is delay Israel’s annexation of the region.

He said that Saudi Arabia is seeing that any relationship with Israel has become increasingly toxic since the Gaza incident. Unless the Israelis change their position and show a real commitment to a Palestinian state—a claim Israel continues to deny—this position will not change much.

The longstanding rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran stems largely from the struggle between the two main sects of Islam—Sunni and Shia. And Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are the result of Iran’s desire for hegemony.

So far, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies remain skeptical of the sincerity of Iran’s diplomatic moves. Because, two so-called proxies of Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, are fighting with Israel, but the other proxy is arming and supporting Yemen’s Houthis. And the Houthis once strongly opposed Saudi Arabia.

Ali Shihabi said that if the Iranians raise their hand to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia will never return it. And if Iran is truly sincere, it will be a true reconstruction of the Middle East.

Young people in the Gulf region constantly see the brutal images of the Israeli aggression in Gaza on social media, and whatever positive or at least ambivalent attitude they had about Israel has turned into hatred. Where a large part of the population of countries in the region is young. The average age of citizens of Saudi Arabia in 2022 was 29 years.

Meanwhile, the situation in Gaza has completely changed this view. The Saudi Crown Prince advocated for the establishment of a Palestinian state and said in a speech given to his advisory council on September 18, “Saudi Arabia will not stop its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we confirm that Saudi Arabia will have no diplomatic relations with Israel except this.” Do not establish relations.’

He gave a similar speech at the US State of the Union.

Just a year ago, Saudi Arabia was moving towards normalizing relations with Israel. Which could fundamentally change the entire Middle East. At the same time, Israel’s biggest enemy, Iran, would be isolated easily. Also, the question of a Palestinian state was not raised strongly.

But the current Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization agreement is far behind any time in the past. However, there has been hope for a ceasefire in Gaza since the killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar. But even then the matter is not going in favor of Israel.

Apart from this, Iran, Russia and Oman have started joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. It includes Saudi Arabia, India, Thailand, Pakistan, Qatar and Bangladesh as observers.

Clearly, a diplomatic de-escalation process is underway in the Middle East. But it is nowhere near as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had planned.

Netanyahu has long said his country wants a deal with Riyadh. But recently the foreign ministers of the countries of the Persian Gulf region have held a series of meetings with the foreign minister of Iran, which is the first in history.

This change, albeit shaky, has provided an opportunity to eliminate the existing religious animosity between Iran and the countries of the region. But more importantly, it presents a golden opportunity to stop the bloodshed that the region has suffered over the past few decades due to this animosity.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi has visited not only Gulf countries but also Saudi Arabia. Visited Iraq and Oman. As a result, the existing tension between the countries can be mitigated. Apart from this, he visited Jordan, Egypt and Türkiye. This is the first time an Iranian foreign minister has visited Egypt in the past 12 years.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in Istanbul last Friday (October 18) during his visit to Turkey that we now have a common complaint about the risk of war spreading in the region, the Gaza-Lebanon war and displaced people.

It is clear that the positions of the countries he visited on these issues are close, if not identical.

While Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is repeatedly denying the establishment of a Palestinian state, the Saudi media and diplomatic forums are everywhere trying to keep the issue alive.

Saudi Arabia, known as the leader of the Arab world, has repeatedly said in recent times that if Israel wants to be with us, the only way is to establish a Palestinian state.

Why is Iran insisting on repairing relations with Gulf countries?

Observers speculate that the Israeli strikes may be stalling for time, as Israeli strikes have killed most of Hezbollah’s top leadership in recent weeks. Because this Lebanese militia has been Iran’s strongest Arab ally and proxy for a long time.

The group has long been a tool of Tehran’s power projection against Israel and in the Middle East. Hezbollah has given and continues to give Israel a good push on behalf of Iran. Without Hezbollah in the region, Tehran is severely weakened.

The ongoing war in Gaza has also forced countries that signed the Abraham Accords to start advocating for a Palestinian state. Because, they are also concerned about their own public opinion. Although the UAE has maintained relations with Israel over the years, these relations have also come under increasing strain in recent years.

Perhaps because of that pressure, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed said last month that after the end of the war, the burden of rebuilding Gaza will also fall on Israel’s shoulders.

He said the UAE is not ready to support the next steps in the Gaza war other than the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Despite Netanyahu’s claims, Israel is working on signing a memorandum of understanding with Riyadh. Saudi officials, however, have glossed over the issue, highlighting the country’s wide division of public opinion.

In this regard, Ali Shihabi said, Abraham Chords is basically a fancy thing. It contained nothing significant in the way of a real, permanent regional peace agreement. The states that signed it did so—because they see Israel as a way to exert influence in Washington.

But now we see that the United States has no power or influence over Israel—which is humiliating—and the Israelis have no desire to create a Palestinian state, he said.

Source: New York Times.