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After the collapse of the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina on August 5, multifaceted discussions are now going on about Bangladesh-India relations. Relations between the two neighboring states have been strained ever since Sheikh Hasina was given shelter in Delhi. Delhi has been relying on Awami League rule in Bangladesh for the last 15 years. There were questions in the democratic world about various events during Hasina’s regime.

The issue came up in an article published by Mizanur Rahman in the weekly political magazine Janata Chet.

Where it is said – disappearances-murders, violation of human rights, people’s freedom of speech and the right to vote were criticized all over the world. But India ultimately stood by Sheikh Hasina. India’s (bipartisan) leadership did not hesitate to take the risk of losing its close neighbor Bangladesh while keeping one party in power. There have been incidents of shooting and killing on the border before. still happening But earlier most of the shootings were aimed at smugglers. Incidents of killing innocent children, teenagers or women are rare except in Felani. But in the changing situation, two horrific incidents on the border have shaken the world conscience. The Indian ambassador has been summoned to Dhaka. It is also unprecedented. There has been a dramatic change in the rhetoric of both governments. Strong language is used in government correspondence. All this is an indication that the relationship between the two countries has reached the peak of bitterness.

Foreign Adviser. India is not taking Tauhid Hossain’s statement well either. They have relaxed the visa process in Dhaka on the pretext of security. Many Bangladeshis are deprived of emergency medical services. The development projects undertaken in Bangladesh due to the country’s debt have come to a standstill. Workers show reluctance to join work. Although Dhaka has been requesting Delhi on this issue from time to time. When this is the case, friends of both are interested in normalizing the relationship. Especially the United States.

Dr. The United States has openly supported the interim government of Bangladesh led by Muhammad Yunus. Many believe that Washington can play a role in changing the political pot of Bangladesh. However, the United States never admitted it. Rather, it has been said that not the United States or outside powers, but the people of Bangladesh have poured fresh blood into the ‘regime change’. There is no way to deny that most of the people of the country were fed up under the Awami regime. The Awami League leaders and activists themselves. They wanted to change the situation.

However, Sheikh Hasina did not want such a miserable defeat. Not emigration. There is criticism that India has supported Bangladesh in the last 3 questionable elections, ignoring the objections of foreign friends and development partners including the United States. The most terrible thing was the opposition of the Awami League in Bangladesh and the opposition to India synonymous propaganda! The Sheikh Hasina government has arbitrarily used India’s opposition as a ‘card’ to retain its throne. Which has poisoned people towards India as well as the government. It not only fueled India’s opposition in Bangladesh but also gave it a ‘new dimension’.

There are many myths about US relations with Bangladesh and India. At one time it was said that the United States saw Bangladesh through the eyes of Delhi! The first question about this view arose in the Trump era. At that time, the Deputy Secretary of State of the Republican government, Stephen E. Bigan, visited Bangladesh. He was in Delhi for 3 days before coming to Dhaka. In his speech in Delhi, Bigan used the phrase ‘elephant in the room’ to describe China’s strong presence in South Asia. At a joint press conference held in Dhaka with the then foreign minister, Bigan made it clear that the US wanted direct relations with Bangladesh. Not through other countries. On that day, Stephen, the second-highest official of the State Department, also explained the position of Bangladesh as the centerpiece of the Indo-Pacific strategy.

Analysts think that, even if Washington sees Dhaka through its own lens, Bangladesh will be discussed in the talks between India and the US – it is not undesirable. There is a four-nation alliance called ‘Quad’ to stop China in this regionIndia is a trusted ally of the United States. The Pentagon and Delhi have identical demands on Bangladesh’s inclusion in the military alliance.

According to diplomatic sources, the United States has repeatedly raised India’s concerns about the changing situation in Bangladesh to the interim government. The United States is making diplomatic efforts to normalize relations between the two neighbors. A high-level US delegation visited Bangladesh last September. An important member of that team was Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu. He spent 3 days in Delhi before visiting Bangladesh. After completing his visit to Dhaka, he returned to Washington via Delhi. This was the first visit by a high-level US delegation to Bangladesh under the new government after the overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina government in a bloody student coup. Not only in Dhaka, Washington, but also in diplomatic circles including Delhi, there was great curiosity around that visit. Everyone was interested in Donald Lu’s visit to Dhaka via Delhi and what message he was exchanging, especially the diplomat Donald Lu, who has a role in changing the political landscape in Pakistan. But the matter was not fully resolved.

Informed sources say that the foreign advisor of Bangladesh and the foreign minister of India sat on the sidelines of the UN session due to the exchange of messages of Donald Lu. The meeting of the Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka with the foreign adviser and the new foreign secretary is also part of that process. According to sources, the United States is doing the embassy so that the Bangladesh-India relationship does not deteriorate further but it is normalized and improved day by day. “Sheikh Hasina” is now a big issue regarding Bangladesh-India. Sources say that the status or position of Sheikh Hasina has not been discussed anywhere in the Dhaka-Delhi meetings so far. Both sides have consciously avoided the issue. The US wants to avoid any issue as much as possible for the sake of relations. That is Washington’s message to both.

It can be recalled that the United States is always careful to keep Bangladesh-India relations normal, especially on any issue so that there is no misunderstanding between Washington and Delhi. In 2014, when the Sheikh Hasina government was adamant about holding elections under its leadership, Dan W. Mozina was the US ambassador to Dhaka. At that time, the United States wanted a consensual mechanism under which an acceptable election could be held. The United Nations was active in that mediation. United Nations Assistant Secretary for Political Affairs Oscar Fernandez Taranco held three rounds of one-table meetings with the government and the main opposition BNP in Dhaka. The then Obama administration sent Ambassador Dan Majina to Delhi to seek India’s support in the Western process. But India voted for the election of Sheikh Hasina that day. Delhi’s Foreign Secretary Sujata Singh flew to Bangladesh and informed them of their location. Despite boycotting the 2014 elections, the opposition alliance participated in the 2018 elections through India’s mediation. Which was led by senior politician Dr. Kamal Hossain. It is said that BNP would have won 70-80 seats in that election. But it didn’t work, the day’s vote was done at night.

In 2024, the Sheikh Hasina government organized a one-party election again. The United States wanted to see public opinion reflected in that election. They announced the visa policy in advance to make the elections fair. Many in the Western world agreed with the US position. Until the middle of 2023, it seemed that the Hasina government will go towards an election with the participation of all parties. But no, after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington and just before the G-20 summit in Delhi, Sheikh Hasina is getting India’s side in this election by making headlines in Indian and international media.

Calcutta’s Anandabazar and Deutsche Welle, a German-based news outlet, carried nearly identical stories about Delhi’s diplomatic message to the United States. The commentary of the two news was that – New Delhi thinks that if Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh is weak, neither India nor the United States will be happy for anyone. India is also fair in Bangladesh
New Delhi said in a message that it wants free elections, the steps taken by the US to destabilize the Hasina government are not positive for the overall security of India and South Asia. Referring to the two reports, Awami League made noise in Dhaka media that day. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina went to the G-20 summit in September of that year. On reaching Delhi, he participated in a bilateral meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Narendra Modi himself said on social media that there was a very ‘fruitful discussion’ in the meeting. He also assured Sheikh Hasina that the support will continue in the future as well. In November 2023, the fifth defense and foreign ministerial ‘two plus two meeting’ between the US and India took place in Delhi.

In that meeting, Defense Minister Lloyd Austin and Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken on behalf of the United States and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Foreign Minister Dr. S Jaishankar led the respective delegations. In the meeting, the twelfth parliamentary election of Bangladesh and the political unrest created around it were widely discussed. Which was revealed by the then Foreign Secretary of India Vinay Mohan Kwatra. It is said that India has ‘clearly’ expressed its view on Bangladesh in the meeting. What the US Secretary of State and Defense said in the meeting in the wake of that statement has not yet been revealed. However, the United States wanted to see free and fair elections in Bangladesh that reflect the will of the people, they said until the night of the polls.

According to the source of that meeting, the foreign advisor of today’s interim government. Tauhid Hossain wrote in an article at that time – ‘One thing is clear here that there is a difference in the position of the United States and India regarding the election of Bangladesh. Whatever government is there in India, Congress or BJP, for them in BangladeshIt is convenient to have Awami League government. On that day, he said, India-US has elevated their relationship to a strategic level from common interest. China’s border conflict with India has also played an important role in this regard. As a result, at the moment, India and the United States have no chance to move away from each other. His assessment was that the United States and India’s positions on Bangladesh are contradictory, but they will not go into conflict. It actually happened. After the election, both India and the US issued statements from their respective positions. But all calculations have been changed by the common students of this country. The spark of the anti-discrimination movement turned into a volcano in no time. Sheikh Hasina was finally forced to leave the country in the face of the bloody coup. That too in India. It has been almost two and a half months, he has not been seen yet. No picture of him has been ‘leaked’ on social media either. Audios of the alleged phone calls have been leaked but there is no evidence that they are his voice.

According to the BBC commentary, he practically disappeared in the air after coming to India! Since landing in Delhi, the Indian government has not spent a single word on how and where he is. In the wake of discussions that he has left India, Delhi has recently said that he is still staying in India. According to the BBC report, in the eyes of India, Sheikh Hasina is currently a ‘guest, but under compulsion! Maharaja Tribhuvan Narayan Shah of Nepal, Afghan President Mohammad Najibullah and Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama were granted political asylum in India.

After the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, Sheikh Hasina also stayed in India until 1981. It was still not an ‘asylum’ on paper. According to a Washington Post report, Delhi is the only option for Sheikh Hasina. Indian government has given him travel document but it is not easy for him to go abroad to any other country. Britain’s door is also closed. The first reason is technical, asylum can only be applied for from within the UK, not from outside. But the more important reasons are political. If Hasina is given shelter, there will be great unrest in the Bengali community there. The Bangladeshi supporters of the Labor Party will be split into two. British Prime Minister Starmer does not want to start any ruckus by harboring Hasina. Moreover, the parliament members of Bengali origin do not want Hasina to go there. Rupa Haque has made a public statement about this. Sheikh Hasina’s sister Sheikh Rehana’s daughter Tulip Siddiqui is now the cabinet minister there. He is in trouble with himself. All in all, Tulip would probably want to keep the aunt away.

According to the Washington Post report, the anger in the student movement in Bangladesh was limited to the dictatorship of Sheikh Hasina. Anti-Indian activities were hardly the time of the movement. If India does something on Hasina’s side or starts hostile behavior with Bangladesh, then the opposition to India in Bangladesh may take a more intense form. Dr. The Indian government is somewhat relieved that Yunus is the head of government. Dr. India. Yunus is respected enough. After the Nobel victory, Sheikh Hasina received an invitation to speak at the joint meeting of the Indian Parliament. Analysts say, India is safe for now. But naturally they have concerns about the future of Bangladesh. Thinktank, South Asia Monitor analyst C. According to Uday Bhaskar, what will Hasina do from the shelter in India? And what will India do with him? That is the big question now. However, it is conceivable that for the time being, India will not allow Hasina to carry out any political activities sitting on its soil.

If Hasina’s stay in India casts any shadow on Dhaka-Delhi relations, it will not be pleasant for anyone. Because Dhaka needs Delhi. Dhaka also needs Delhi. With that in mind, it is expected that Sheikh Hasina will spend a quiet retirement abroad. But those who know Hasina or know about her language of revenge, they will surely say – It may not be easy for Delhi to keep Hasina ‘quiet’.